The Chaotic Attractor of Foreign Direct Investment - Why China? A Panel Data Analysis
2004/07/27
研討會日期 : 2004-07-27
時間 : 15:00
主講人 : Prof. Frank S.T. Hsiao
地點 : B棟110室
演講者簡介 : Prof. Frank Hsiao為Ph.D.，University of Rochester (1967)。
現為Professor，University of Colorado at Boulder。
其主要研究領域為Mathematical Economics、Theory of Economic Growth、 Economic Statistics and Econometrics及Economic Development of East Asia。
演講摘要 : We explain that China is an "attractor" of FDI because its FDI inflows increased steadily even though the world FDI inflows have decreased considerably in recent years. It is indeed "strange" or "chaotic" since its rates of FDI return are below the world average and predictions of its economic crisis or collapse are abundant. We find that Hong Kong and Taiwan are predominant players (40 to 60% of total FDI), followed by the United States and EU, and the size of investment is generally very small. The concept of the China Circle should be expanded to the East Asia Circle, which is experienced by Taiwan and Korea in earlier decades. We also considered some important characteristics, including the regional distribution, geographic proximity, and cultural similarity of these countries. To avoid spurious regressions, we use panel unit root and cointegration tests developed in the last few years. The results from panel data regressions explain our observations quite satisfactorily.
