演講者簡介 : Professor Lin received her Ph.D. in Economics from University of California, Davis, U.S.A. She is currently an Associate Professor at Department of Economics in National Tsing Hua University. Her research fields are International Economics and Macroeconomics.
演講摘要 : Firm entry dynamics strongly influence the propagation of financial shocks to the real economy. First, we document with a VAR that financial shocks in the U.S. postwar period are associated with a fall in new firm creation as well as a fall in equity prices. To explain the effect on firm entry, we develop a novel DSGE model where firms finance entry with a combination of equity and debt, so that the financial shock directly impacts the financing of the sunk entry cost. Positive comovement of entry and equity prices is achieved by introducing a congestion externality in entry costs, in which a sudden rise in firm entry raises the sunk entry cost, and a firm enters only if its equity price is sufficiently large to cover the raised entry cost. The model implies that when firm entry drops in response to a financial shock, the surviving firms have a greater share of aggregate profits and hence equity value, which helps relax the financial constraint. Simulations of the calibrated model indicate that a reduction in the number of firms can be a useful margin of economic adjustment to an adverse financial shock, which reduces the overall impact of a financial shock on the level of aggregate output.
