Faculty group: Kong-Pin Chen, Wen-Tai Hsu, Wei-Min Hu, Hao-Chung Li, Tzu-Ting Yang
All seminars will be arranged by Zoom (online). If you would like to attend the seminar, please register using the link on the main page of this website. Paper abstracts and links will be made available beforehand whenever possible. For more information about each seminar, please contact Ms. Chunmei Huang (email@example.com)
Tuesday, December 6, 2022 14:30-16:00 (TPE time)
Speaker: Prof. Bingjing Li (University of Hong Kong) Personal Webpage
Title: Illuminating the Effects of the US-China Tariff War on China's Economy
Abstract: How much has the US-China tariff war impacted economic outcomes in China? We address this question using high-frequency night lights data, together with measures of the trade exposure of fine grid locations constructed from Chinese firms' geo-coordinates. Exploiting within-grid variation over time and controlling extensively for grid-specific contemporaneous trends, we find that each 1 percentage point increase in exposure to the US tariffs was associated with a 0.59% reduction in night-time luminosity. We combine these with structural elasticities that relate night lights to economic outcomes, motivated by the statistical framework of Henderson et al. (2012). The negative impact of the tariff war was highly skewed across locations: While grids with negligible direct exposure to the US tariffs accounted for up to 70% of China's population, we infer that the 2.5% of the population in grids with the largest US tariff shocks saw a 2.52% (1.62%) decrease in income per capita (manufacturing employment) relative to unaffected grids. By contrast, we do not find significant effects from China's retaliatory tariffs.
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