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Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Aggregate Consumer Loans: Evidence from an Emerging Economy

Güneş Topçu, Amir Ali Farhang, and Ali Mohammadpour

摘要:

This study aims to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on aggregate consumer loan demand in Türkiye using a novel Turkish EPU index developed by Topçu and Oran (2021). In addition, we included inflation, interest rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) as explanatory variables. The data covers the period from 2002Q4 to 2021Q2, and the analysis was conducted using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results demonstrate a significant and negative impact of the lagged EPU index on the demand for consumer loan amount in the short-term, while indicating a significant and positive impact of the EPU index in the long-term. The short-term negative sign is attributed to the precautionary saving motive while the long-term positive sign reflects the influence of government policies. Alternative indices from various regions revealed that Europe, the United States (US), Russia, and global EPU had no impact on aggregate loan demand in Türkiye, except for the Chinese EPU index. As EPU has a significant impact on the aggregate consumer loan amount, measures should be taken to eliminate political uncertainties in Türkiye, as the Turkish EPU index mainly spikes with political uncertainty and elections.

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