:::
字級: 小字級 中字級 大字級 | 分享:

每週研討會

Employment Consequences of U.S. Trade Wars

  • 日期 2020-01-20 (週一)
  • 時間 10:30 AM
  • 地點 Conference Room B110
  • 主持人 Professor Tzu-Ting Yang
  • 演講者 Ms. Sanjana Goswami
  • 演講者簡介 Ms. Goswami will receive her Ph.D. in Economics from University of California, Irvine in 2020. Her research interests are International Trade, Labor Economics, and International Macroeconomics. She is applying for a position of the Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica now.
  • 摘要 This paper provides evidence on the short-run and long-run distributional effects of tariff shocks on employment in the United States. Using monthly data on tariffs and employment, I find that in the period of January 2017 to March 2019, commuting zones more exposed to Chinese retaliatory tariffs experienced a decline in employment growth, whereas U.S. import tariffs had no immediate effect on employment growth. I also study the employment effects of a hypothetical trade war between the United States and China by calculating counterfactual employment changes under three different retaliation scenarios and find that had the U.S. imposed tariffs in the 1991-2007 period on all products, the large job-destroying effect of the ‘China shock’ would not have occurred, irrespective of the retaliation strategy pursued by China. However in the post-recession period of 2010-2016, the ‘China shock’ no longer exists and therefore U.S. import tariffs would not have had a job-creating effect. This result corroborates the findings of the short-run analysis.
TOP